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MONTREAL BUSINESS OUTLOOK FOR 2020

December 16, 2019 6:46 pm Published by Leave your thoughts

The Canadian economy is projected to grow by 2 per cent in 2018 and 2019. However, growth is expected to slow to below 2 per cent beginning in 2020. However, it is projected to reach full capacity in 2020. After that, economic growth will be limited to an average of 1.7 or 1.8 per cent.

  • The Canadian economy is projected to grow by 2 per cent in 2018 and 2019. However, growth is expected to slow to below 2 per cent beginning in 2020.
  • The economy has been driven by robust household spending in recent years. This has been spurred in part by high home prices and a large increase in consumer debt.
  • Over the next few years, employment growth will be constrained by slow labour force growth and low unemployment. This will combine with high household debt and rising interest rates to temper real consumer spending.
  • Non-residential business investment has not yet recovered from its decline following the commodities price crash of 2014. The current weakness is largely the result of low investment in mining.
  • Business investment is expected to post solid growth as the new US–Mexico–Canada trade deal lowers uncertainty and businesses respond to high levels of capacity utilization.
  • The economy has operated below full capacity over the last several years. However, it is projected to reach full capacity in 2020. After that, economic growth will be limited to an average of 1.7 or 1.8 per cent.

Other local business forecasts:

Alberta’s economy will rebound by 2.4 per cent next year and 3.1 per cent in 2021.

Ontario is expected to experience continued growth over the 2019 to 2022 period. On average, they are calling for real GDP growth of 1.5 per cent in 2019, 1.7 per cent in 2020, 1.7 per cent in 2021 and 2.0 per cent in 2022.

B.C.’s economy is expected to maintain modest momentum, albeit at a slower pace than recent years. GDP growth is forecast to reach 2.6 per cent in 2020, 2.1 per cent in 2021 and 2.2 per cent in 2022.

Montreal is on track for continued economic growth, albeit at slightly lower rates than the 3.4% seen in 2018. The CBoC forecasts growth of 2% in 2019, tapering off slightly to an average of 1.6% from 2020-23.

Toronto Comercial Real Estate: Foreign money is flooding into CRE in Toronto and it is no surprise why. High end condo towers are popping up all over, some of the largest and most luxurious mixed-use developments in the world, the strongest office market in North America, and industrial with vacancy rates as low as 1.4%. Toronto Commercial Real Estate is firing on all cylinders!

The bright lights of the 2019 Canadian commercial real estate market have been the industrial and downtown office categories and the Toronto and Vancouver markets, analysts say.  For 2020, most analysts think the commercial real-estate market will continue strong as long as external events, such as Brexit and U.S. trade issues, don’t lead to recession. 69 per cent of the real-estate executives consulted by PwC felt that 2020.

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